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Brooks Wilson's Economics Blog: Confirmation Bias

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Confirmation Bias

As classes begin, I urge my students to avoid confirmation bias. Robert T. Carroll of the Skeptic's Dictionary describes confirmation bias as

a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.

Expose yourself to new ideas. Students tend to think of economics in terms of the Democrat and Republican debate. Although economists are often partisans, their debates frequently turn on a different axis. For example, economists might debate the relative effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in achieving full employment. Both a Democrat and a Republican might favor stimulative fiscal policy but differ on who gets tax cuts. Many of the economists who believe that fiscal policy is effective may not like the tax cut plans of either party.

Greg Mankiw recently posted a letter from the "perfect" student in A Question about Learning Economics, or at least that's how I think the student. The student reads books by economists with very different perspectives, and respectfully engages professors in discussions. The student mentions having a professor who was a Friedman disciple and another who was New Keynesian. Mankiw's reply is sold. In part, he writes,

You are lucky that you have professors with different viewpoints. Your job, as a budding economist, is to learn from all of them. Ideally, at the end of the day, you should be able to understand and appreciate (although not necessarily agree with) each point of view. You should try to construct in your mind a debate between your Friedmanite professor and your Keynesian professor. What points would each raise, and how would the other respond?

In a valuable EconTalk, Ian Ayers suggests that listeners attempt to name things that they have learned but that they don't like. If you can't think of any, you are a biased consumer of education.

36 comments:

  1. "Students tend to think of economics in terms of the Democrat and Republican debate. Although economists are often partisans, their debates frequently turn on a different axis."

    Economists have to deal with a wide range of problems, and two parties are too few for that. It's obvious, makes sense, but even after people finish your class the vast majority of them will never understand.

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  2. After reading this I find that I am more confirmation biased than I actually realized I was. I will definitely try to think out of the box and be open to new ideas so I can get the full benefits of this class. I hope that others will do the same so they too can also reap the benefits. Aamanda P.

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  3. I am also more biased than I realized. I will try to keep my bias out of my learning abilities during this class. I look forward to the challenges this class offers.
    Marie King

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  4. Dr. Wilson,

    I have always tried to remain as unbiased as I could, though this is admittedly impossible. Nobody has the capacity to be 100% unbiased. It is our responsibility to take in as much information from different sources as we can, let it marinate, and interpret it to the best of our ability - politically and otherwise. As a non-traditional (read: older) student, I feel I have a little more perspective than my average classmate, at least when it comes to bias. I strive to keep my mind as open as I conceivably can, and it is my sincere hope that being back in school will continue to help me in this endeavor. Your class will definitely be a tickmark on my side.

    Your student,
    Karen Lowrey

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  5. Hello Dr. Wilson,

    Throughout the semester, I will try to be more confirmation biased in this class to obtain full knowledge of economics and make it beneficial. Since I already try to think outside the box, listen to other peoples ideas and let them know my own then hopefully this class won't be as hard as I thought. From now on I will stay on top of my game and open to the challenges this class and the world have to offer.

    Your student,
    Jameela Thomas from Chilton

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  6. Will any one person actually become 100% unbiased? I do not think that is logical but I think that we should try our best to become open minded about issues and once you have become that way then the next challenge would be to say that way. Sometimes we try a different brand of ice cream. If we always eat Blue Bell then how will we learn that the other brands are just a good. My goal in this course will to become open minded and stay that way, I'm sure it will benefit me through out my life.

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  7. The more I read, the more I learn. I am going to try my best to be aware of the need to avoid confirmation bias. Hopefully, just being aware of it will allow me to consider other ideas without shutting them out.

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  8. The above message was sent by your student,
    Louann Walker

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  9. Dr. Wilson
    I am going to try to think out side of the e box more. I usually only go one way and shy from listening to things I don't agree with. I hope to understand economics better as class goes on.
    Gloria Pickett

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  10. I normally love hearing "the other side". While it doesnt always change the way I feel about things, hearing another opinion always gets me thinking. It will be intersting for me to see if I lean more toward the Friedman idea of minimizing government for the private sector, or do I lean more to the Keynesian side of hoping our state will stimulate economic growth as many Americans are hoping it will do in the near future. While I have strong beliefs on many views, I try to not have selective thinking. At times, looking for opposing arugements is a little hard when we think we are right. I look forward to being tested to do so.

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  11. Hi Dr. Wilson! This blog has encouraged me to keep my mind open to differing opinions. I tend to only pay attention to subjects that agree with my beliefs. However after reading this blog, I can see the importance in hearing and paying attention to both sides so that I may emerge from this class as a better and more knowledgeable student.
    Devin Smith (Bruceville-Eddy)

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  12. As I was reading the blog, I thought about me own biases. I strive to have an open mind but have to admit, that sometimes I am biased with even knowing it. Every time I turn on the television, something is said about "economy" or "recession" and it seems that the only people suffering from any of this is the middle and low class. I will try to avoid confirmation bias when learning new things in this class.

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  13. Honestly, I am so new to the whole subject of economics that I don't think I have any opinions on it. I'm not one to watch the news or read the paper and at this point, I'm still trying to figure out what it all means and how I can apply it in a way it will make sense to me. As I'm learning, I will take in all the information that I can so that when I do form an opinion, it will be an educated one.

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  14. Dr. Wilson,

    I consider my self to be impartial to the whole democrat and republican part scene. I do not favor one over the other and choose to take the best from each. I feel I am a good listner and any additional information I can learn from a person is greatly appreciated. This semester I look to you and your beliefs to learn from in order to be more educated on some topics. Thank you for your blogs.

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  15. Dr. Wilson,

    The best way to avoid confirmation bias is to become educated on all aspects of a subject. Typically, the more you know about something, the less black and white it becomes. Those tricky "gray" areas tend to be the ones which make you think about the other side of an issue.

    Amanda Tweedy

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  16. Dear Dr. Wilson,

    No one has ever really said it was important to value or respect an opinion that you do not support. With reading this I realize I am not as open minded as I thought. In order to be truly educated you must know the entire truth and not the portion that you favor. Thank you very much, and I hope that this class only broadens my knowledge in more areas than one.
    Demetria (B-E)

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  17. I never really considered the idea of confirmation bias, but I certainly have it. I will certainly try to stay open to other ideas and actually listen to others. That's a tall order for people as politically entrenched as I am!
    Damon Scott

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  18. I will now be more aware inside and outside of class on confirmation bias.

    -Jordan F

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  19. I agree that we should all remain as unbaised as possible. It is only going to benefit us. You should always have an open mind to different point of views and make an educational decision based on the views and facts you have received.

    Jennifer Brown

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  20. After reading this blog I have come to the conclusion that I am somewhat confirmation bais without even knowing. At times I am open minded but it has usually been on issues that I may be more comfortable or more knowledgable of. I don't know if I will ever be fully opened minded with new or unfamiliar issues but now that I can have the opportunity to think outside the box of an unfamiliar issue I will indeed try to practice remaining unbaised as much as possible.

    Ami Barragan

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  21. I've never liked the idea of selective thinking, and it's definately something I've avoided in the past. I wish all of government had an open mind. Who knows-maybe the economy wouldn't be in the economic crisis it's in today.

    -Sarah K. G.

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  22. Dear Dr.Wilson

    I agree that everyone should always have an open opinion. If you don't keep your mind open how will you learn new things.

    Amber Hensley, Chilton

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  23. Dr. Wilson,
    I will try to remain unbiased. I suppose that my ignorance of the subject is a good "blank slate".

    Matt Noble

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  24. I have read this now twice through and have come to the conclusion that I am very Biased on certain matters. This opens my eyes that maybe I need to be more open and keep an open mind for new ideas and learning bridges to come in.

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  25. Dr. Wilson,

    I am the first to admit that I am very biased. I waited until the end to take this class because I was sure that it would be a very hard class for me to understand. Hopefully I will be able to prove that assumption wrong.

    Jennie Bryant

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  26. Dr. Wilson,

    This blog reminds me of when i first learned about different religions in school. Some students were uneasy of studying a religion with differing beliefs, but the teacher urged them to not let their personal views prevent them from acknowleging and appreciating other religions.

    Katie Klaras
    Midway High

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  27. You can't put your eggs all in one basket. It's as simple as that: as simple as the old saying. Hence, why I saw on another blog in which you stated that 44% of economists are neither Democrat or Republican, which I like. In my honest opinion, I believe it should be a majority or closer to 100%. I've been pretty much a middle person my whole life like my family. I try to learn from others and not go on the extreme on my own. Also, when you are biased, you could just be going to one side just so you can say you stand somewhere, which isn't always good. It can also involve unnecessary pointing fingers and get ugly.

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  28. I apologize, this was your student Brazelton Mann.

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  29. Dr.Wilson,

    I am open to all information you would like to provide me. I came into a Microeconomics class not sure what to expect but hopefully I leave with alot of gained knowledge.

    m.g.

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  30. Dr. Wilson,
    I really liked this blog... It is so true... most students are bias when it comes to economics and many other classes/subjects etc. ... but you teach your class in such a way... that makes us keep an open mind after we analyze the diffrent points of view that you present during class time.
    a.t.

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  31. Dr. Wilson,
    I feel as if this blog spoke to me. Thanks to you, I have realized that I myself may be biased sometimes. In one of your lectures you state, "Biases tie our conclusions to our prior beliefs, eliminating the need for study." This statement could not be any truer! Once you hear something you already have an opinion on, you feel you do not need to spend any more time on it. This is turn hurts us because we can sometimes look at it from the wrong perspective.

    Thank you,
    Darlene Gorgan

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  32. In reading this, I discovered that growing up in a very conservative household, I was very biased on the the political views of Republicans. However, I now realize that in learning through my college professors I can make my own ideals and agree or disagree with my elders. All in all, I now have a more open mind about things that are brought up in different conversations, and listen to others points of view rather than just going with my biased opinion and rejecting it before it is even said.

    -Hunter Hezmall (microeconomics)
    hh0300006@students.mclennan.edu

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  33. Being unbiased is a very challenging goal. We must be open to all points of view and information, but our preset notions will play a strong role in our decisions.
    James Wolfe
    Lorena, Texas

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  34. Dr. Wilson

    I believe that it is important to have a bias opinion. I think that we shouldn't let teachers prevent us from having our own opinions but at the same time we should be open to the idea of different views. In the process of listening to other views and defending our own we are forced to have a greater understanding and knowledge of both sides.
    Leeann Halfman

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  35. Bias is a difficult subject. It is true, that ideally everyone would function without bias. Or would it? This is ,after all, America: the land of freedom. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion in this great nation. In most cases, people are encouraged to be free thinkers. A world without bias seems a little "Brave New World"-ish to me. Open minded, and without opinion, everyone is right, yet no one is. Personally I attempt to embrace all ideas, people, and cultures and learn from them. For example, the Koran. I am not Muslim, and nor will I ever be. However, I still find great philosophy and morality in the book. If not that, then at least is has some great poetry in it. When it comes to the media however, I'm not exactly sure how I feel. I like to know all sides of a story, but something about the freedom of press seems to contradict this idea of being without bias. I tend to like the idea of political candidates vying for news time, attempting to snatch the headlines of papers. A world where all aspects MUST be presented seems a bit like China to me. A controlled media forced to present all stories (lame or not). I guess what I really mean to say is that I support/ and do not support the idea of being biased. In regard to people willingly accepting, being open, and nonjudgmental, I completely support that sense of the word. However, once you have observed all aspects, and decided what you believe, stick to those beliefs no matter what...

    -Su amigo,
    Don Juan

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  36. Abel Galliguez23/5/09 7:43 PM

    Prof. Wilson,

    This topic of being unbiased is very relative to economics. More closely related to, our book as it teaches normative versus positive economics. Obviously one cannot form a normative statement without having a positive statement. They work hand in hand, in the same manner unbiased opinions and biased opinions do work hand in hand and sometimes reconcile with one another by being open-minded and thinking outside your comfort zone or your biased psyche to formulate a fair state.

    Your student,
    Abel Galliguez

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