Castaneda on U.S. and Cuban Relations

Jorge expresses his views on policy that the U.S. should pursue towards Cuba in a Wall Street Journal article, "The Right Deal on Cuba."  The byline identifies Castaneda as a professor at New York University, a fellow at the New America Foundation, and Mexico's foreign minister from 2000 to 2003.  He believes, as I, that the U.S. should unilaterally lift the trade embargo on Cuba.  He argues that this action would pressure political leaders from Brasilia, Santiago and Mexico City to strongly promote to Castro the democratic ideals they quietly profess. 

It begins with a unilateral end to the embargo: Nothing is expected from Cuba. But in exchange for eliminating the embargo, key Latin American players would be expected to commit to actively seeking a normalization process between Washington and Havana, and to forcing Cuba to establish representative democracy and respect for human rights...

Would Brasilia, Santiago and Mexico City go along? Perhaps not, but nothing is lost by trying. All Mr. Obama would be asking is for moral consistency on the part of Latin leaders -- to uphold the values enshrined in their own constitutions and treaties.

Would the Cubans buy into this plan? While Fidel lives, it's unlikely. If they don't, Mr. Obama will have relinquished what many wrongly consider America's only leverage with nothing to show for it. And the Latin Americans could always wash their hands of the affair, arguing they tried their best.

But on the other hand, the pressure on Mr. Obama to unilaterally lift the embargo may become irresistible anyway. By shaming Latin leaders to stand up for their professed ideals, no one could pretend that the blame for the conflict still lies in the north. And in itself, the end to the embargo -- unlike what occurred in Vietnam and China -- may force Cuba to open its society.

I agree with Castaneda that Cuba would not open to U.S. trade while the Castro's live, but I also believe that attempts to open trade would benefit the U.S. and pressure the monarchic communist regime to reform.  Tirades against the U.S. would seem empty.  If trade opens, the first beneficiaries in Cuba are likely to be communist officials, both in the military and out.  We would gain a pro-United States interest group at the highest levels of the regime.  If Castro refuses to lift trade restrictions, communist officials will know that they have a potential to profit from trade when it opens.  We will still gain a pro-United States interest group within the regime.