The 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims Updated to November 7, 2009

This post updates a graph comparing the 4-week moving average of unemployment claims through the week ended November 7, 2009 in "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report" with the average of the three previous recessions.  A little technical information of the graph follows the post.  Seasonally adjusted initial claims was 502,000, down 12,000 from a revised estimate of initial claims of 514,000 for the week ended October 31, 2009. The 4-week moving average decreased 4,500 to 519,750. The average is down 139,000 from its peak.

Robert J. Gordon did research exploring the relationship between the 4 week moving averages of initial unemployment claims and found that recessions often bottom out shortly after the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims peaks. This is bittersweet news.  While average has decreased, the rate of decrease has been painfully slow.   

Using National Bureau of Economic Research estimates on the beginning and ending dates of recessions, I built a graph that compares the 4 week moving averages of initial unemployment claims for recessions that began in December 2007, March 2001, July 1990, and July 1981.  I have not attempted to adjust the initial claims data for changes in the size of labor market. The plots are measured over 112 weeks, beginning eight weeks before the recessions began. The horizontal axis begins in October 2007, the date the current recession began, and the data for the other recessions are superimposed on this date.
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