The ugly turn of events in the Big 12, the loss of OU to Texas, Texas to Tech, and Tech to OU has yet again placed the BCS in a predicament. Two teams play for the "National Championship" and only one has a perfect record. The remaining top ranked teams have a loss. Texas, Florida, OU, Tech, USC and Penn State can all make a claim that they should have a shot at the title game. Even a couple of undefeated teams with weak schedules will tell you that they should be in the championship.
Lacking a playoff system, the BCS relies on a combination of human rankings and computer rankings to select teams that play in the championship bowl.
But my question is not whether you prefer human rankings or computer rankings, but if you had to construct a computer model to rank teams, which variables would you use?
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The obvious choice is to implement a playoff system but that doesn't seem like it would come anytime soon. So if I had to choose I would pick a computer ranking system, humans can be too bias. The computer model should include strength of schedule, head to head, record, and all the individual stats such as sacks or passing yds.
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ReplyDeleteI totally agree with Andrew Watson. A computer picks no sides, unlike humans. It just takes the information and gives us the results. So having a computer model to decide the rankings is a great idea.
ReplyDeleteI think that a computer should be used. I agree with LD that humans are not bias. It should be left up to all of the stats. Sometimes you can have an awesome game or be off one night but it should not just left up to an awesome game or a bunch of adoring fans.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with computer rankings is that it ends up making ties a little too difficult to swallow, such as what happened with the Chinese and American gymnasts this summer in Beijing.
ReplyDeleteBut since the question is not whether or not a computer or human is best but is rather what variables I would use here is the following:
1. Number of wins.
2. Calculating the history of the team for the past 7 years to give each a weight.
3. Using the calculated weight plus the wins to rank the teams.
A playoff would make the whole situation a whole lot easier, but until that time comes a computer model should be used to avoid human bias. The ranking should be based on record, toughness of the schedule, and team stats such as total yards offense and total yards given up on defense.
ReplyDeleteI would construct a program that strictly deals with record and strentgh of schedule. I wouldnt deal with individual stats that gets to complicated and tedious. I would look at total points scored and points allowed. It should be strictly computer rankings with no human influence involved
ReplyDeleteIn my constructed computer model, variables such as each teams history of playoffs and the composite stats of each team over a small period of time would be the main focus of the computers pick. Human popularity among the teams would also be calculated within the program. Though these variable are ideal... the BCS will do what they believe is best or will possibly use a orthodox traditional to make an outcome.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the idea that computers have no bias. I think the ranking system should go by how many wins each team has, but also take in consideration the difficulty of the wins. The playoff system seems like it would work also.
ReplyDeleteThe variables I would use to construct a computer ranking model would include previous five year record, strength of schedule as well as team statistics. Individual stats are important; however, since there is no "I" in team, they should only be looked at for individual awards in my opinion.
ReplyDeletePresident-elect Obama has mentioned his support of and the need for a playoff system in college football. Maybe we will see some "change" here soon. Until then, regardless of which two teams get to play the championship game, Texas is best and Colt deserves the Heisman. ;) That last statement was probably very strong support for Andrew's argument that humans can be too biased! :)
Playoffs would obviously be the best choice in this situation. But the truth is that the fate of our favorite football teams is in the "hands" of a computer. I think that the computer should rely more on head to head competition. Using the stats from the game, which shows how close the game was. For example: Texas stomped OU, but the computer only knows that they won by 10 points, its obvious that they need to correct some of the ways they rank the teams.
ReplyDelete--Emily Stern
You have to include strength of schedule, you determine this by going back to previous years and finding non-conference games between two differnent teams. Like when a big 12 team played a MWC etc. You can also include number of national championships in each conference
ReplyDeleteObviously, my best choice would be a playoff system but if i had to create a computer system it would use the following variables:
ReplyDelete1)record
2)strength of schedule
3)head to head
4) points for and points against
I would not use individual stats as a variable because I think they should only be used for individual awards. I also think they would effect the teams record and points so in a sense good individual stats will help your team with the system, but the system will not look at them directly.
I agree with Andrew and LD that computers would be the best solution to avoid human error, but just as human beings error so do computers. I believe that there should be a balance of human decision making as well as computer generated involvement.
ReplyDeleteI'll agree with what everyone has said and say that a playoff system is the obvious choice here. However, if it has to be a computer...
ReplyDelete1.Head to Head
2.Strength of Schedule outside of conference
3.Points scored vs. Points allowed
4. Strength of conference
-Rustin Tawater
I also agree that the best choice would be playoffs...
ReplyDeleteMy computer model would include:
1. Record
2. Points scored and points allowed
3. Strength of schedule
4. head to head records
Individual stats should not be used in the system. Considering all of those numbers would make it all too confusing. Past records and playoff games shouldn't have a huge impact if any at all because this is a new year and a new team. If they haven't been in a championship game before why hold them out because of it? So no past or individual records would be used in my system.
I think the best decision would be to implement the playoff system. However, due to the power the bowl system has over the NCAAF and all the profit that is accumulated through those bowl games the chances of a playoff are unlikely any time in the near future... So if I had to choose a ranking system I would use a computer system that focuses on a few primary aspects:
ReplyDelete1. Head to head
2. Offensive points per game (accounting for the calliber of the team being played)
3. Defensive points per game allowed (accounting for the calliber of the team being played)
4. Record
5. Strength of schedule
Instances like these should be handled completely by computers. Humans rely too much on their own feelings, so in a way, it is not always a fair decision. Determining rankings and playoff games should be based solely on a decision made by a computer, that way no one can argue about the fairness of that decision, since computers do not care!!
ReplyDeleteI think that while computers eliminate the existence of bias, a computer system lacks the intuition that humans can often have about a team or a player. If the amount of people doing there were people that all supported different teams, their biases would cancel each other out for a more accurate ranking.
ReplyDeleteWhy won't a playoff system work? Since this is not an option, seems an electronic/computer system is the most unbiased way to go. The variable should include the schedule, wins/losses, point system, etc
ReplyDeleteHonestly I would prefer to have a playoff, but if i had to let computers choose they should take these factors into consideration:
ReplyDelete1. Overall team stats
2. The strengths of the teams that they played
3. Scores
4. Yards gained vs. yards lost
I wouldn't depend on team history b/c every year is different and sometimes the underdogs can come out on top...my high school example? MIDWAY : )
The variables I would use to rank teams are; number of wins, player stats, team schedule (harder schedule will give more points), yards gained, number of flags, points scored, and points allowed.
ReplyDeleteI think the best solution is a playoff system. I don't think playoffs would solve all the problems though, because say it's a 4 team play-off, well that 5th team is probably going to have a case to be in the 4 team playoff.
ReplyDeleteIf it were computers I would base it off of:
1. Strength of schedule
2. Head to head
3. Points scored/ points allowed
If I had to construct a system to determine rankings I would for the large part agree with the computer system idea... However, there are certain intangibles that I think computers leave out. For an example John Hubert. The computer can calculate all of his stats, all of his teams wins, and all the mathematical statistics, but what it does not see is his will to win. How bad he wants it. When you watch him you see a player who wants it more than any one else. A player who will sacrifice whatever he has to to win. Late in the fourth quarter of the game against Long View he was struggling to even walk, but when he got the ball he exploded and plowed over people. For the simple fact that he had the bigger heart and had more want than anyone else. This should come into play in rankings. The intangibles, the leadership, the want, the drive, and the unity that teams have. This cannot be measured by a computer however. Only be the human mind and spirit. Therefore I believe we need a slight combination, so we may have the ability to take into fact these great qualities that champions must posses.
ReplyDeleteI dont think a playoff would solve everything, although it would makes things better..Take this year you have 3 teams, all have the same record and have played each other.. so who plays who and how many teams get into the playoff? But if i was to make a computer model it would use:
ReplyDelete1)Head to Head
2)Strength of Schedule
3)Stats
I think to solve all this is to make a playoff system in college football. But if i to pick human or computer rankings i would go with human rankings. Because they see, watch, and know how the teams preform on the field. A computer doesn't.
ReplyDeleteI prefer a mix of both computer and human rankings. If it was human people would complain that there is a bias, and so a mix is a good idea. If I had to construct a computer system I would put a few important things into how I choose the best teams. I would put wins vs opponents playing hot. Like if you beat a team who is playing great, thats bonus right there. And of course strength of schedule would go in there. Another big thing would be if the team did lose, what the other teams strength of schedule was and how much they lost by.
ReplyDeleteI would prefer a computer to pick rankings over a human. Computers would pick the winner by how tough their schedule is and other things, while humans would pick whoever their favorite team was. The best way to solve the problem, such as last years Big 12 conference's three one loss teams, would be a playoff system.
ReplyDelete