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Brooks Wilson's Economics Blog: Economists as Experts (Repost I)

Friday, August 28, 2009

Economists as Experts (Repost I)

Economists have a chip on their shoulder, or at least I do. Nobody argues gravity with a physicist, or covalent bonding with a chemist, but they do argue supply and demand with an economist. Nobody ever asks if a physicist or a chemist is biased, but people make these claims all the time about economists. Like Rodney Dangerfield, economists, "don't get no respect."

In his book, The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies, Bryan Caplan describes two common biases that many think economists possess. They are self-serving bias and ideological bias.

Self-serving bias is based on a literature that suggests that people form beliefs that are comfortable and support their financial interests. As an expression of self-serving bias, Lincoln said of slaveholder,
The effect on the minds of the owners is to persuade them that there is no wrong in it. The slaveholder does not like to be considered a mean fellow, for holding that species of property, and hence he has to struggle within himself and sets about arguing himself into the belief that Slavery is right. The property influences his mind. [1]
The argument implies that economists are on average well-to-do, and have job security and therefore support policies that help the rich through markets. Caplan's statistical analysis suggests that self-serving bias does not explain economists' views. If economists had the same level of income and job security as the average person, their opinion on policy would still mirror those of other economists.

Ideological bias suggests that economists beliefs were shaped by their free market mentors. If Republicans are more conservative than Democrats, implying that they are more likely to support free market policies, the accusation does not fit. Economists are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. Daniel Klein and Charlotta Stern (How Politically Diverse Are the Social Sciences and Humanities? Survey Evidence from Six Fields) surveyed six social science disciplines. The overall response rate of 30.9% and the small number of academic economists responding (96) suggests that results should be interpreted with caution. Academic economists were defined as those working at four year colleges or above. They found that three times as many economists vote regularly for Democrats as compared to Republicans.

The Economist.com (Examining the candidates) surveyed 683 research economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and found similar results to Klein and Stern.
A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither. This skewed party breakdown may reflect academia’s Democratic tilt, or possibly Democrats’ greater propensity to respond. Still, even if we exclude respondents with a party identification, Mr Obama retains a strong edge—though the McCain campaign should be buoyed by the fact that 530 economists have signed a statement endorsing his plans.
Their nonscientific results find that Democrats outnumber Republicans 4.6 to 1, an even stronger result.

Caplan compares the political beliefs and policy views of 250 Ph.D. economists and concludes,
Compared to the general public, the typical economist is left of center. Furthermore, contrary to critics of the economics profession, economists do not reliably hold right-wing positions. They accept a mix of 'far right' and 'far left' views.
Economists may have biases, but they are not self-serving bias or ideological bias as often claimed.

[1] Miller, William Lee. Lincoln's Virtues: An Ethical Biography, Alfred A. Knopf, New York , 2002, page 388.

46 comments:

  1. Melissa McCall29/8/09 12:28 PM

    Everyone is biased in their opinions, otherwise, it would not the THEIR opinion. I believe that economists are more likely to be attacked with claims of trying to persuade consumers to act in their favor due to a monetary gain. If a physicist claims that gravity forces object to fall , than people have no other choice but to believe, because , after all... what else could make this true? On the other spectrum , when an economist proposes a plan for supply and demand one might argue that he is trying to advance a company he represents or if he is trying to map out a plan for tax cuts he might be doing this for the government official that he advises. So, in all actuality , it may be hard to listen to someone when money rules the world. However, economists are scientist as well.

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  2. Kristie DeMaria21/9/09 11:37 AM

    Unlike Physics or Chemistry which is a rational/number science, Economics is a behavioral science. Because of this, it is automatically concluded that economist are bias in one form or another since their science is based off of behavior of the consumers/people. For example, when an economist uses statistics they start off with a variable. The variable that they choose is not stagnant, which means that they choose the variable. The variable they choose allows for bias. For the Natural sciences the variable is constant meaning that no bias can be implemented. For example, dropping a rock can measure the gravitational force into a precise number. But economist use past data to determine the range that something might happen with in a particular time frame. That data gives them a basic range in which to work from and get their variable. They then get to decide if they wish to make decisions based off of the high end or the low end of that range. By making a decision on that range the economist will be using his opinion, which is a form of bias.

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  3. Lyntoria Davis says....
    I agree with Melissa, everyone is a little bias because no one really like to be wrong but I have always wondered if economist was just another citizen with the same amount of money as everyone else, would they still have the same view point that they have now? In my opinion, i don't think so. I find it amazing that 46% of the surveyed people stated that they were Democrats.I wonder how and where the survey was conducted. I use to think that economist were very bias but now I understand what positions they take and why I was very wrong.

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  4. rebecca kolosci15/1/10 1:42 PM

    As everyone has pointed out, we all have some sort of bias in everything we do. Bias is all around all the way down to the types of foods we eat, wether we buy organic or not, wether we buy name brand or generic. If everyone was on the same team and there was no bias, things would be a total wreck. We have to have it in place to keep things in check. I know a lot of economists get a bad rep for being biased but the reality of it is that everyone is doing everything they can to get themselves to the top. Wether you work in retail, government, or even in non profit. Everyone is trying to do the best for what they believe by doing what they believe is neccessary. It is all a big competition and if you can get more people to join you, you are likely to be more successful.

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  5. Rachel Ledbetter16/1/10 11:09 AM

    Everyone is biased about something. We almost have to be in order to keep things in this world running smoothing. Economists may be biased but they are fighting for what they believe and what they think or know is right.
    I agree with Melissa,it may be hard to listen to someone when money rules the world. Economics is a science which is subject to change. Not only in the science itself but people change their minds all the time about it. With physics and chemistry there are certain things we can't change our minds about because there are certain things that can't change.

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  6. I believe this becomes a "touchy subject", because unlike physics or biology, economics is a very active science. Meaning, the principles and rules established in physics were discovered so very long ago, and nothing has changed since then. Gravity is still gravity, just as it was all those years ago, and it still keeps us grounded. Economic policies, even though many were established so long ago, are still very currently evolving. Mostly, because they have to. We are facing new economic and political challenges every year, so while we can apply the past lessons and theories, we can't be entirely sure how they will work this time around, under these new circumstances. This could be why economics remains such a hotly debated science. There sometimes isn't a hard and fast rule....

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  7. Janet Frei17/1/10 4:08 PM

    Whether it be someone with an opinion about another person or an economist with a view about economic policies, we all have our own biased opinions. However, this is why we have more than one economist. If there was only one right answer, we would only need one economist to come up with that answer. Because there is more than one answer to economic issues, some economic policies still need improvement. There may be many answers to the needed improvement of these economic policies.

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  8. Analyn C. Sanders22/1/10 6:30 PM

    Economists are biased? People making claim about economist as biased, maybe because Economy is not an exact science. Not like other fields like Medicine, Accounting. and Engineering. Economists can present reports about supply and demand with research but will not have the same interpretations. They will have different points of view.

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  9. Mark Morrison...

    Economists receive more critism than biologists in this era because the public's livelyhood is effected by the legislation that economists help develop. Bias are always present, and economic policies will never please everyone. This is why economists will be scrutinized for years to come.

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  10. Rosalva Medina21/2/10 11:17 PM

    Economists recieve such criticism because it is a unique profession. Where as other sciences can be backed up by straight indisputable facts, economics is susceptible to change acording to however humans and their decisions change.

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  11. brittnie white29/4/10 10:48 PM

    economist get criticized because what they do is not an exact science, and three different economists looking at one piece of information will possibly come to three different conclusions

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  12. I agree with what Kristie said. Physicist have no room to be biased while economists do.Often times people criticize other people for not having their own opinion. It is almost impossible to not have a bias and make claim.

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  13. People will always be biased about something. When people hear something on the news about whatever, good or bad, they will be biased about it one way or another. Just as with an economist, if a person hears something good or bad about them they are going to form that bias opinion. But economist do not just make things up off the top of their head. They are just like any other scientist, they too do theories and studies of history so they have not only insight to the past economy, but they are then able to evaluate ideas of the present. They make assumptions that make it easier for people to understand.

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  14. Elaine Owen said..

    People question the validity of advice offered by economists because they are afraid that the advice being given will only benefit the economists pockets {since it is theorized that economists only give advice that will help themselves financially} But really economists are giving advice that helps everyone out even if it may not seem like it.

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  15. Jessica Beck

    I believe that economists are bias in their own opinion but everyone is. I don not believe how ever that economists are giving advice to only help their pockets they are there to help everyone in the economy.

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  16. Economists in my opinion will always
    receive more critism. The people rely too much on economists and politicians to inform them on what is going on in the world. When something goes bad that is also who they blame. In short no one will be happy and bias will be bias. Everyone has one just might not be the same.

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  17. Emily Peters6/9/10 10:54 PM

    I guess economics is criticized more because it seems like economists can make their own policies and have their own beliefs and they could be based on politics, while biologists and physicists have the rules that were made up a long time ago and have not changed and are set in stone almost like facts, therefore they cannot be wrong. Maybe more people should question them. No one has to believe what anyone says no matter how long they have learned it or been taught it or how long it has been around. I think that biologists and physicists should be questioned just as much as economists.

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  18. I believe that economists are so often questioned, because their work is often involved so heavily in politics. Other scientists like Darwin are questioned for their studies when they enter the world of politics. Many scientists that are for or against climate change are very scrutinized, so I don't believe that only economists are under the gun.

    One thing that surprised me was how little of the economists where claimed to be conservative. One would think that an economist would have a higher income and would vote for their own benefit.

    Curtis Anderau

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  19. Kersten Gonce11/1/11 6:33 PM

    I believe that everyone and anyone has the ability to question whom ever they please. Its a right that people were given and I feel that people should use it. Economists, biologists and physicists should all be questioned, its human nature, but economists will always receive more questioning, because its politics. Politics is the United States, its in the "world" view and Economists will always be in the "world" spotlight.

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  20. ight or wrong, economist are easy targets for claims of having self serving bias because of their affiliation with politics. People on the other side of the party lines often use this against people that they disagree with. They assume that decisions are made based on what the person can get out of the deal rather than on good, old fashion research and knowledge of a situation. Unfortunatly, pleanty of politicians and people of power have given the citizens reason to believe such.
    Kim Huffman

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  21. Everanit Lopez24/1/11 9:07 PM

    A good economist needs to obtain a monetary gain in their favor. I believe everyone has some kind of bias on their own opinion.

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  22. So far I am unconvinced that comparing an economist to any factual science is an unfair practice. There may be some aspects of other sciences that divide those scientists as in the case of creation vs. evolution. However, even this example is mostly a difference in values based on ones religious belief or lack there of.

    Although differences in scientific judgments come into play for a economist, it seems more likely that a difference in values or perception versus reality would play a greater role in economic findings. What you believe is the best course of action for something as massive as our economy or the world economy must be greatly subject to ones experience, social economic background, education and mentors (not to mention politics).

    I look forward to understanding more about the hard science of something which seems to change so much.

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  23. As it was pointed out in the textbook, one of the ways economists can test theories is to review what has happened in the past and then carry that to present day. The problem with that is that two economists can have two different viewpoints based on their past experiences. The same thing hold trues with historians, especially when reviewing a presidential administration and try to determine if it was a success or a failure. Economics, as in history, is not an exact science...it is comprised of various viewpoints on what has occurred based on an economist or a historian past personal experiences.

    Ken Haltom

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  24. Montrelle Mathews23/8/11 11:54 AM

    Easier said than done! Point a finger and put me into a box that states that I am like everyone else"economist". True we could be well todo and maybe we don't or wouldn't like to see our way of life altered. But if my views and heart are truely non bias then the comments,choices and decissions I make would reflect my positions. Sure someone can trust the word of a scientis or chemist and not question it but then how do you grow. Economist should offer a different way of looking at a situation and not have to feel like they will be challenged at every turn. Then you wouldn't have freedom of speech and that would hender the ability to change.

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  25. Just saying..Obama probably has around 25 or more economist advising him. How does he choose which one to listen to especially when all of them are respected in the field. Has to be horribly confusing..why would anyone want to be President and be subjected to all the abuse and have to deal with making the decisions from advise from this many people, especially when they are probably all fairly biased in their opinions.

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  26. Randy Novak30/8/11 10:01 AM

    I believe, as I had stated in a previous post, that too much emphasis is placed on the ‘Democrat or Republican’ title. This blog tries to clarify that economists may fill a more general middle-of-the-road affiliation. However, I believe that anyone with an opinion will naturally be aligned with an organization that shares the idea. For example, using the sports analogy, even if I say I am not a Cubs fan, but I tell everyone I think they are going to win the World Series, I will be viewed as a Cubs fan. An economist that agrees with a democratic plan is labeled as a Democrat. The only way to distinguish a true position would be to compare the stances on multiple topics. The generalization that economists are not self-serving or ideological is, in my opinion, a general blanket statement.

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  27. You mention a couple of surveys done by economists and both were academic related and I agree that they are #1 more likely to respond and #2 left leaning.

    I am very skeptical of people that create "truths" using survey results. How can you report a bias of a whole occupation with such a small number of people? It's like surveying the "American Public". How can 1,000 people represent the beliefs of millions?

    Theresa

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  28. I also am skeptical of surveys done with such a small sample. I know that I am also self serving biased. This is due to the fact that I know so little about the overall economy and have only cared to hear about what benefits me and my family personally. I do like the idea of the economists having beliefs and opinions from both sides (Republican and Democrat). There are so many different opinions about how this country should be economically run. Its good to know that all economists do not go one way or the other, that means that they may have the general public's interest at heart.
    Gena Harcrow

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  29. Bias, I believe does often play into a person's thought process, even an economist's thought process. Economists should be scientists and as such should simply go with the facts. Both republican and democratic party platforms have foundational beliefs and some of those beliefs go along with economic fact, and some of those completely contradict economic fact and are simply opinion. Since both parties do this a true scientist would probably not associate themselves with a party that has flawed logic as part of their foundational belief on important issues. Since 56% of scientists polled did associate themselves with a party, then it should go to prove that they do have personal and inherently biased beliefs since they would support parties that do hold economically incorrect views.

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  30. Kevin Rhodes31/8/11 7:18 PM

    If an economist is an expert in his field then biases will come natural. Everyone has biases toward most things in life and i would say most of these biases or self serving. To say no economist has a self serving bias or an ideological bias would be saying that economist are conscience of their thoughts at all times and the initial teachings from the professor who started them on this path did not have a lasting impact on their life. This would show up more in an ideological bias. Having a self serving bias or an ideological bias is not always bad. Most people need a base platform to begin their thoughts with.

    Kevin Rhodes

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  31. Ester Anderson said......
    Everyones bias one way or another.Weather they want to admit it or not...Science is based on trail and error and research and is backed with facts.Plain and simple and I beleive economists are attacked because they are dealing with a persons livly hood .Just like lincoln stated , The people saw it as taking away something they owned or felt they had owne.If they didnt have slaves who would do their cotton picking /farm thier lands /care for their children/prepare dinner ect...
    I agree with Kevin having a self serving bias or ideological bias isnt always abad thing.Thats why there are democrats and repiublicans becasue everyone is different and want different things in life.There has to be a starting point and I just dont buy that economist dont have self serving bias.

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  32. To some extent we all suffer from a self-serving bias, and have our own opinions that could be considered by others to be biased. As many others have pointed out, I am apprehensive of taking stock in a survey whose sample is so small, but I do feel that the reason economists are so closely criticized for their bias and their political ideologies is because of the nature of their jobs. Their predictions and decisions affect the way our money is handled, and no one really likes the idea that what happens with their money is out of their control.

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  33. Laura Ledford1/9/11 9:11 PM

    I agree that everyone is bias at some point if not most of the time. I believe this makes us all different and we have different personalities because of this. Economist are probably not respected as they should be but then again nobody feels they do.

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  34. Chris Simmons15/9/11 4:47 PM

    First of all, I do not believe all economists are bias. Sure it may seem that way time to time but its always gonna appear that way to some individuals. Just because they seem bias with their motivation doesn't mean they can't or won't hear another persons opinion and rest their thoughts on a better plan. There is no perfect measurement or calculation when it comes to our economy. It is in my opinion, the most difficult science to pursue from all angles.

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  35. Like with many of the people before me, I agree on what they say, that economical science isn't like physics of chemistry in the sense that that field of science deals with rational numbers, figures, etc. Economics deals with data that concerns people, an ever changing economy, and ideas that come from groups that already are looking for self gain. It is with this that economists are seen as partisans even if they simply advise people with what seems to work the best because after all one group of people in the end will benefit more than another. It is the economist's duty, however, to propose ideas that benefit society in the best way possible.

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. Economists "don't get no respect" simply because the respect isn't necessary for Economics. While Chemistry and Physics are based completely on identification fact and absolutism, Economics is ever changing and is influenced by one's personal bias. It is more likely that an economist, rather than a chemist, will be questioned solely because there it is easier to lie about Economics than Physics. One may lie about the financial action that would be best for his client, and no one would be the wiser. However, when, due to gravity, an apple falls from a tree it will hit the ground, it is pretty hard to convince someone otherwise.

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  38. Economics differs from proven science in a very basic manner, it is ever changing. The economy changes on almost a daily basis and this type of change makes economist's jobs much more difficult and challenging to follow and understand. It would be much easier for an economist to be self serving in nature than a scientist for the simple fact that they have the ability to manipulate data when science can not be changed.

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  39. I agree with melissa as well. How else are you to have an opinion if it is not biased by your own beliefs, attitude, or even mentors throughout life. I could never be an economist because I am not good to judge nor form an unbiased opinion. I am open minded but even at that it would never be enough.

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  40. Amber Frenzel26/1/12 9:05 PM

    I believe that humans are all generally biased to at least some degree. That is not to say that we always act on those biases or that they are particularly bad to have in the first place. The great majority of the general public is biased against murderers, and that is certainly not a bad thing. That being said, I also believe that we as people, including economists, need to regulate ourselves so the we do not ignore things because we are biased in one way or the other. I participated in an internship at a research lab last summer and we had a class beforehand to educate us about scientific bias. Scientific information can be changed, and it has been in some cases. This situation is a bad one, but it has happened. It is just as easy for a scientist to show bias as it is for an economist in my opinion.

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  41. This can be a touchy subject. Every person will have their own opinion no matter what the subject may be. We all tend to be biased in our own ways. Anything could be an argument if you allow it to be. Economist are going to have different views on different policies. People are going to have different views on different economic issues. People will lean toward the economist that shares their same opinions. This is the way we work, which makes for a lot of controversy. But this would be a strange world if we all thought alike.

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  42. Economists have a reputation of telling people what they want to hear, not exactly what is going on. I always thought that economists and politicians were one and the same. Now, I'm understanding that they are not anymore of a politician than I am. They have thier own personal beliefs but it doesn't seem to affect their reading of the economy.

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  43. Melissa Oliver26/1/12 10:45 PM

    I think when it comes to anyone's profession they are biased with it and others have biased views about them. Most people I know think teachers are very smart and Doctors are all rich. I met my share of no so smart teachers and middle class doctors. There is biased views for every job. There will always be different views on economic issues because everyone thinks they have the cure all for the economic problems.
    Melissa Oliver

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  44. I would have to say that Economist is a little bias in their beliefs. Each economist beliefs are different from the next. With it economy being a behavioral science, the studies will be different, because people and the economy changes so much.

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  45. krystal reyes29/1/12 7:53 PM

    republicans, democrats, different religion groups all have to have a say- so about one's political, or religious ways. the problem is,to many people wanna have a their say in whatever that is being discussed. its unevidable everybody that commented had a different opinion if not the same. We live day by day asking people for advice about things in our lives that we do not agree on.so scared of making a wrong decision. so therefore everyone is a little bias.

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  46. I agree with others on this blog who stated a person's opinion is bias towards what they think. If not, it wouldn't be their opinion. People have trouble with economists beacause they can look at the same situation and not come up with the exact same conclusion whereas an accountant is going to get the same answer for a given problem as the next guy. I believe people don't understand subjective vs. objective.

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